No, there isn't a secret formula to investing in comics. Just like there isn't one for buying gold, silver, stocks, bonds, etc. Nevertheless, as in any long-term investment strategy, diversification is one important key to success and having fun in this hobby. I'll come back to diversification later. But first, there are legitimate variables to consider when considering what makes a comic valuable. And when I say valuable, I mean highly sought after.
Here's my formula:
Value = ((Condition * Popularity) + First appearance or Death of a character) / Existing copies
It's a pretty rudimentary approach, I admit, and I'm sure a statistician could make it more robust (maybe Popularity should be cubed?). But more importantly, it helps to guide me before I plunk down money:
1. I cannot anticipate the popularity of any existing comic.
2. I may be able to estimate the existing number of copies.
3. I can select the condition that the comics are in for my collection.
4. I can determine which issues have first appearances or deaths.
The formula may help to explain how certain comics are highly valued now, but it cannot predict which comics will rise, or continue to rise, in value. For modern comics, it is even more difficult to predict because there is little historical reference to base their future performance.
Let us consider the relatively high values for these Modern Comics: Batman #404, New Mutant's #98 (Deadpools' first appearance), and Batman Adventures #12 (Harley Quinn's first appearance). When can we expect these comic values to shoot even higher? I don't know. But one, or both, things must happen: their populairy must rise even higher and/or the number of existing copies must fall. Now, which factor is more iimportant: popularity or number of existing copies? I would say that popularity is more volatile while the number of existing copies tends to remain stagnant. Perhaps the real question is can we predict these comics' future popularity? No. We cannot.
And this is what makes comic collecting fun!
Here's where diversification comes in: buy what you like, but choose a few comics from the Golden, Silver, and Bronze Ages. Depending on your budget, and if it's anything like mine, you might end up having a portfolio with a high number of issues from the Bronze Age and Modern Age compared to the Golden and Silver Ages. And that's okay. The key is not to lock yourself into one or two key comic (or even one era of comics) that may or may not experience a rise in demand.
And from a pure collecting point of view, it's nice to see how characters, art, and storylines change over the decades. Who doesn't like to see how Batman's costume changes over time?
Hey you should post some pictures of the comics you've bought that you are referring to. I like your writing but would love to see some visual examples of the works you're discussing about.
ReplyDeleteAs for collecting comics, for me, I think those days are past. Or perhaps, more blasphemously,I may go towards resurrecting the dark art of collecting comics on a digital front. I've already have a few digital comics picked up from Comixology and from Google and after reading your blog I may decide to get a series from either site (up until now, I've mostly only downloaded free options). Or perhaps I'll pay for that yearly online subscription to Marvel which gives you access to a bunch of old comics in their archives.
Your writing is stoking the few embers of passion I still have for comic books. Perhaps one day again in the future we can talk about comics like we did when we were very young. To quote Stan Lee: "Excelesior".
For you, old friend, you can have all the digital codes I have that I will never use. Let's see...Spider-Men #1, Ultimate Comics Spider-Man #22, #23...I still believe in paper.
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